On May 22, the National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories for subtropical storm Ana that had formed near Bermuda – the first storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season which officially starts on June 1.
The Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) Group at Louisiana State University provides storm surge and flood inundation guidance through its interactive visualization portal all season. Please check our CERA storm surge tool at cera.coastalrisk.live for updates and get connected with our partners through Seahorse Coastal Consulting at LinkedIn.
On May 20, NOAA issued it’s 2021 hurricane seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. For the Atlantic, an active season is predicted.
According to NOAA, several climate factors that favor increased activity are reflected in this outlook, including: – the ongoing high-activity era that is in place since 1995 – ENSO Neutral or LaNina (will not suppress hurricane activity) – warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures – reduced vertical wind shear – weaker Atlantic tropical trade winds – an enhanced African monsoon.
“Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.”
According to a statement released by NOAA on April, 9 2021, the Atlantic hurricane season averages have changed.
“Beginning with this year’s hurricane season outlooks, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) will use 1991-2020 as the new 30-year period of record. The updated averages for the Atlantic hurricane season have increased with 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) remains unchanged at 3. The previous Atlantic storm averages, based on the period from 1981 to 2010, were 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.”