On May 20, NOAA issued it’s 2021 hurricane seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. For the Atlantic, an active season is predicted.
According to NOAA, several climate factors that favor increased activity are reflected in this outlook, including:
– the ongoing high-activity era that is in place since 1995
– ENSO Neutral or LaNina (will not suppress hurricane activity)
– warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures
– reduced vertical wind shear
– weaker Atlantic tropical trade winds
– an enhanced African monsoon.
“Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.”